Blu¢ng Beyond Poker
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper introduces a model for blu¢ng that is relevant when bets are sunk and only actions -not valuationsdetermine the winner. Predictions from poker are invalid in such nonzero-sum games. Blu¢ng (respectively Sandbagging) occurs when a weak (respectively strong) player seeks to deceive his opponent into thinking that he is strong (respectively weak). A player with a moderate valuation should blu¤ by making a high bet and dropping out if his blu¤ is called. A player with a high valuation should vary his bets and should sometimes sandbag by bidding low, to induce lower bets by his rival. “Designers who put chess-men on the dust jackets of books about strategy are presumably thinking of the intellectual structure of the game, not its payo¤ structure; and one hopes that it is chess they do not understand, not war, in supposing that a zero-sum parlor game catches the spirit of a non-zero-sum diplomatic phenomenon.” Thomas Schelling ¤Kellogg School of Management, Department of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences, 2001 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA e-mail: [email protected] yECARES, 50 Av. Fr. Roosevelt, CP114, 1040 Brussels Belgium. Email: [email protected]. Web page: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~nicolas2
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